Modern methods of process planning in conveyor systems with buffers of a certain size between processing devices allow optimizing schedules for single tasks or fixed task packages with a limited number of them and a limited number of devices. The use of mathematical models of the processes of performing single tasks (task packages) used by these methods in optimizing the composition of packages and schedules for their execution in systems with an arbitrary number of packages and devices is impossible. At the same time, mathematical models of the processes of executing task packages in conveyor systems in the presence of buffers of limited sizes between devices are the basis for the development of methods for optimizing their (package) compositions and schedules for the implementation of actions with them on the devices of conveyor systems. In this regard, the article develops mathematical models of multi-stage processes of performing an arbitrary number of task packages in conveyor systems in the presence of intermediate buffers of limited sizes for two and three devices, as well as for an arbitrary number of devices. The use of these models makes it possible to determine the time points of the start of the execution of task packages on the devices of conveyor systems, taking into account the limited size of intermediate buffers, as well as the duration of time intervals for the use of these resources and the efficiency of their use over time. An algorithm has also been developed for mathematical modeling of the processes of executing task packages in conveyor systems in the presence of intermediate buffers of limited size, which calculates the time characteristics of these processes based on a given order of implementation of actions with task packages on the devices of conveyor systems. An application has been developed that implements synthesized mathematical models of the processes of executing task packages in conveyor systems with intermediate buffers of limited sizes and an appropriate method for modeling these processes. Versatile testing of the developed application has shown that the obtained mathematical models and the modeling method adequately describe the course of multi-stage processes of task packages in pipeline systems, set using different values of their (processes) parameters.
Computer networks are based on technology that provides the technical infrastructure where routing protocols are used to transmit packets over the Internet. Routing protocols define how routers communicate with each other by distributing information. They are used to describe how routers communicate with each other, learn available routes, build routing tables, make routing decisions, and share information between neighbors. The main purpose of routing protocols is to determine the best route from source to destination. A particular case of a routing protocol operating within an autonomous system is called an internal routing protocol (IGP – Interior Gateway Protocol). The article analyzes the problem of correctly choosing a routing protocol. Open Shortest Path First (OSPF) and Enhanced Interior Gateway Routing Protocol (EIGRP) are considered leading routing protocols for real-time applications. For this they are chosen to be studied. The main objective of the study is to compare the proposed routing protocols and to evaluate them based on different performance indicators. This assessment is carried out theoretically – by analyzing their characteristics and action, and practically – through simulation experiments. After the study of the literature, the simulation scenarios and quantitative indicators by which the performance of the protocols is compared are defined. First, a network model with OSPF is designed and simulated using the OPNET Modeler simulator. Second, EIGRP is implemented in the same network scenario and a new simulation is done. The implementation of the scenarios shall collect the necessary results and analyze the operation of the two protocols. The data shall be derived and an assessment and conclusion shall be made against the defined quantitative indicators.
An oligopoly with an arbitrary number of Stackelberg leaders under incomplete, asymmetrical agents' awareness and inadequacy of their predictions of competitors' actions is considered. Models of individual decision-making processes by agents are studied. The reflexive games theory and collective behavior theory are the theoretical basis for construction and analytical study process models. They complement each other in that reflexive games allow using the collective behavior procedures and the results of agents' reflections, leading to a Nash equilibrium. The dynamic decision-making process considered repeated static games on a range of agents' feasible responses to the expected actions of the environment, considering current economic restrictions and competitiveness in each game. Each reflexive agent in each game calculates its current goal position and changes its state, taking steps towards the current position of the goal to obtain positive profit or minimize losses. Sufficient conditions for the convergence of processes in discrete time for the case of linear costs of agents and linear demand is the main result of this work. New analytical expressions for the agents' current steps' ranges guarantee the convergence of the collective behavior models to static Nash equilibrium is obtained. That allows each agent to maximize their profit, assuming common knowledge among the agents. The processes when the agent chooses their best response are also analyzed. The latter may not give converging trajectories. The case of the duopoly in comparison with modern results is discussed in detail. Necessary mathematical lemmas, statements, and their proofs are presented.
The paper considers the problems of developing recommendations in the area of fiscal and trade policies to counter economic sanctions at the level of both individual countries subject to such sanctions and at the level of economic union including such countries. Research study has been carried out based on the developed dynamic multi-sectoral and multi-country computable general equilibrium model, which describes the functioning of the economies of nine regions of the planet, including five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The initial data of the model contain built sets of consistent social account matrices (SAMs) for the historical and forecast periods based on data from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, national input-output tables, international trade and IMF data (including forecast) for the main macroeconomic regions indicators. Results of the impact on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators of the EAEU countries and other regions of a hypothetical scenario providing the imposition of additional economic sanctions since 2019 against Russia from some regions were obtained. An approach to solving problems to counter the sanctions policy based on the parametric control theory by setting and solving a number of dynamic optimization problems to determine optimal values of the corresponding fiscal and trade policy instruments at the level of individual EAEU countries and the EAEU as a whole was proposed.
The results of the model-based calculations were tested for the possibility of practical application using three approaches, including evaluation mappings’ stability of the exogenous parameters’ values of a calibrated model to the values of its endogenous variables. The results demonstrate greater efficiency for each EAEU country using a coordinated economic policy to counter sanctions, compared with the implementation of such policy separately at the level of each country.
The class of moving objects, which are bodies of revolution, which for some reason have undergone irreversible deformations of the hull, is considered.
The immediacy of the problem being studied has to do both with the need to study the dynamics of such objects and the insufficiency of the studies already conducted, which are mainly focused on the study of the effects of aeroelasticity or mass asymmetry and do not affect the dynamics of bodies with irreversible deformations.
The problem of the motion stability of the considered objects, including the process of interaction of the longitudinal and lateral movements of the deformed body, is formulated. Particular attention is paid to the movement of the curved body with rotation about the roll and the identification of the presence of critical roll velocities. It is noted that for the case of passive movement there are three possible reasons for this interaction: aerodynamic, kinematic, inertial.
A theoretical approach has been developed that takes into account the specific features of the geometry of deformed bodies. The approach made it possible in practical studies to determine the allowable deformation levels and its relationship with the motion parameters of deformed bodies.
The stability analysis was carried out based on the stability criteria of the system solutions describing the body movement according to the Routh – Hurwitz criterion. The body parameters , which have a varying degree of influence on the stability of movement, are determined. In a more general case, the curve of the stability boundary for a given angular velocity in roll will have a more complex form than a simple hyperbola.
The possibility of obtaining a direct solution to a nonlinear to the determining parameters equation is also shown. It will make it possible to obtain the dependences of the critical heel velocities and stability ranges on these parameters.
Mathematical modeling based on the developed techniques, carried out for direct and curved bodies, showed that the body curvature has a significant effect on the displacement of the lines of derivative pitch moments in the angle of attack and the moment of sliding in the angle of slip relative to the limits of stability. The range of angular velocities for the roll is determined, in which a loss of stability is observed for the curved body. The effect of variations in the angular velocity and the relative change in the derivative of the yaw moment coefficient in the slip angle on the value of the determining factor from the stability conditions for the direct and curved bodies is analyzed. It is shown how the curvature of the body leads to a shift of the saddle point. The effect of a change in the Mach number on the determining coefficient of characteristic equations is analyzed.
Recently, Speech Emotion Recognition (SER) has become an important research topic of affective computing. It is a difficult problem, where some of the greatest challenges lie in the feature selection and representation tasks. A good feature representation should be able to reflect global trends as well as temporal structure of the signal, since emotions naturally evolve in time; it has become possible with the advent of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), which are actively used today for various sequence modeling tasks. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to feature representation, which combines traditionally engineered statistical features with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) sequence representation in order to take advantage of both short-term and long-term acoustic characteristics of the signal, therefore capturing not only the general trends but also temporal structure of the signal. The evaluation of the proposed method is done on three publicly available acted emotional speech corpora in three different languages, namely RUSLANA (Russian speech), BUEMODB (Turkish speech) and EMODB (German speech). Compared to the traditional approach, the results of our experiments show an absolute improvement of 2.3% and 2.8% for two out of three databases, and a comparative performance on the third. Therefore, provided enough training data, the proposed method proves effective in modelling emotional content of speech utterances.
At present, the orbital constellations of satellites with the possibility of receiving, processing and relaying the ADS-B («Automatic Dependent Surveillance — Broadcast») system signals that ensure globality and continuity of the air traffic monitoring are being created and gradually enhanced. In accordance with the concept of ADS-B technology usage , each air traffic participant broadcasts its identity, location, and status parameters in broadcast mode. Due to the fact that the system was not designed to receive signals onboard the satellite, there are certain problems related to their energy availability, the presence of collisions of messages from different sources, the effect of Doppler effect and other factors. Developed simulation model of aviation surveillance systems based on the reception of signals containing identification and navigation information and transmitted over the air in the broadcasting mode. Software-implemented simulation algorithms allow to set various constraints and assumptions (radiation sources distribution, aviation communication systems signals receiving points, information transmitting channel, signals frequency and duration distribution models) and obtain the target indicators estimates of the space and ground-based aviation surveillance systems functioning, taking into account various spatial and energy factors and conditions for the radio signals propagation, and controlled objects actual placement and their movement dynamics in the world airspace. Simulation model use methods and examples for calculating the space and ground aviation surveillance systems functioning target indicators are presented.
Modeling of radiation fields of an arbitrary optical thickness uniform slab in the case of a weak absorption and strongly elongated phase functions has been carried. The simple modification of classical Ambarzumian’s — Chandrasekhar’s invariance principle indispensable for the receiving of new non-linear integral equations connected with azimuthal Fourier harmonics of generalized unified photometric function and photometric invariants has been used. These values join upgoing and downgoing radiation fields intensities making use of simple linear manner at arbitrary optical levels in mirror vision directions including fixed azimuthal angles and solar zenith distance. Parametrizations of obtained non-linear integral equations have demonstrated in the absence of reflecting underlying surfaces, placed at the lowest level of considered uniform slab, the possibility to express angular-spatial properties of unified photometrical function and appropriate photometrical invariants taking into account the phase functions strongly elongation near small scattering angles and small slab’s absorption with the help of primary scattered radiation field intensities and adaptive fitting multipliers. These functional adaptive corrections have been stipulated by uniform slab’s multiple light scattering and possess the clear physical interpretation. The use of mirror reflection (symmetry) principle, elaborated by the author, and conception of unified photometric function allows one to estimate the above-mentioned peculiarities of real environment’s phase functions in the framework of photometric invariants numerical modeling. An analysis of appropriate radiative modeling results has shown a dominating influence of primary light scattering in the formation of anisotropically scattered radiation fields of an arbitrary optical thickness uniform slab in the case of weak radiation absorption and strongly elongated phase functions.
The article describes the computer model of using electromagnetic waves with lengths from 0.1 mm to 1 mm for detection of internal defects of products made by additive technology.
Now additive technology and 3D printing use materials transparent for terahertz waves (frequency 3·1011-3·1012 Hz, wave length 0.1-1 mm). At the same time, defects in 3D printed products have sizes like a terahertz wave’s length. Thus the Fresnel diffraction can be observed during illumination of a product with the same defects by monochromatic milliwaves.
Thereby the simulated diffraction method for 3D printed products quality checking can be applied. In this article the checking scheme, the diffraction pattern modeling algorithm using the Rayleigh – Sommerfeld integral, and the computer programme for this algorithm are described. The determination of sizes and positions of defects in products using diffraction patterns is shown.
The proposed diffraction method is fully automated and low-cost, uses safety electromagnetic radiation and can compete with tomography methods.
The transformable designs of space basing are delivered into orbit in a folded state, which creates the task of their reliable disclosure. In this paper we propose to use an actuator in the form of electrical machines as the executive body. The use of this type of actuator allows controlling the process of deployment.
As a large-sized transformable structure we consider the space-based reflector. At present, the transfer of the machines from the folded state to the operation state is carried out by stages. The paper considers the joint implementation of two stages: the rotation of the root unit of the spoke and the extension of the intermediate unit. Mathematical models for rotational and translational motions are developed which take into account such parameters as bending and contraction of the spoke. Modeling and analysis of the results of different variants of the joint disclosure of the reflector elements are made: the use of the engine for each of the components of the motion and the use of centrifugal force for the extension of the spoke.
The application of the algorithm for correcting the control parameters is considered. One of the important advantages of the algorithm is the ability to carry control in real time. It can be used to calculate the reference control in algorithms based on the two-channel principle.
Based on the mirror reflection principle and solutions of modified linear singular integral equations, the numerical modeling of the unified exit function of the outside radiation field and photometrical invariants of brightness coefficients for a uniform slab of finite optical thickness has been carried out. The efficacy of applying the angular discretization method for problems of numerical modeling of outer radiation fields in the «atmosphere — underlying surface» system has been proved. This new approach allows generalizing the basic results in the particular case of a semi-infinite uniform slab. In this connection the main mathematical aspects and computational peculiarity of the numerical realization of the angular discretization method have been considered. Due to linearity of the used basic integral equations, the conducted analysis can be generalized to the case of scalar and polarized inner radiation fields taking into account the multiple anisotropic scattering of photons and their reflection from an arbitrary horizontally uniform underlying surface.
In this paper, we propose a formal model of individual and group behavior based on p-adic coordinate system. The model developed allows description and prediction of behavioral reactions of the personnel of critically important objects under conditions of external destructive informational impacts.
In the paper, the dynamic model of social tension formation, presented in the form of the nonlinear differential equations, is proposed. The research of the developed model is conducted, which allowed one to study the dynamic features of the process of social tension formation and to estimate the efficiency of managing the social tension level.
The purpose of any rescue and other emergency operations is to save people and assist to sufferers, to localize accidents and eliminate the damage hindering rescue operations, as well as to create conditions for the subsequent recovery works. In the presence of factors that menace life and health of the people carrying out these works (rescuers, firefighters, etc.) there is an objective need for application of the automated robotic means of transportation of a sufferer. A lack of the corresponding methodological and program- algorithmic tools causes a need to model specified means. A model of a transportation position of the sufferer on the basis of Bayesian belief networks is presented in the paper.
Linear continuous channel discrete mappings in the form of metric finite-dimensional space operators are formalized. Its coupling with representation in the form of integral transforms on the basis of limiting process from series view is shown. It is shown that semi-digital operators of linear continuous channel discrete mappings on the basis of Pugachev canonical presentation are calculated by force of iterative procedure consistently conditioning basis functions on input and output channel in terms of recurrence input transformation.
The problem of identification of the different aspects of the interacting objects in-formation and telecommunication networks (ITN) on the results of network traffic monitoring is analyzed. As a solution to this problem in terms of identifying the types of network facilities and operations interaction graph model of behavior is proposed, in terms of relations disclosure of anonymity interacting objects predicate state model objects ITN based on the relationship between instances is offered.
Discusses the principles of evaluation the effectiveness of the malefactor in the critical infrastructure. The "operating complex" process modeling of security breach is presented. Investigated uncertainty modeling process of malefactor and ways to overcome them. A mathematical model of aggregate effectiveness of the malefactor, which removes some limitations of existing probabilistic models of random phenomena in the field of information security is developed. The model is called stochastic super indicator and is intended for research of conflict situations in critical infrastructure.
This paper presents a techniques assessing the reliability of the complex structures which can not be reduced to a series-parallel connection of elements. In the case where the system elements can have three mutually exclusive (disjoint) states – up state, “fail-closed” mode, “fail-open” mode there is a need and an opportunity to separate the system failure probability calculations for the "break" and "closure". It is shown that the developed method of estimating the reliability can be used for structures of any complexity with very weak restrictions. Orthogonalization are examples of logic functions based on the incompatibility of individual variables. Correctness of the proposed methods was confirmed by the decision of problems by full exhaustive search. Examples of automated modeling of bridge structure and the structure of the two "stars" connected to a "delta" solved using software ARBITR in which software is implemented algebra of mutually exclusive (disjoint) events.
Continuous channel phenomenological model is suggested. Linear continuous channel models in shape of metric space transformation operators with specified basis and also special case of coordinate function basis of Pugachev integral canonical expansion are designed.
Methodological foundations of space monitoring andthematic processing of satellite images of the forestare proposed in this paper. The methods of systems analysis for researching of satellite imagery thematic processing are used. We developed the models of structural relationships and properties of forests and satellite images interpretive features in different spectral bands of the survey and detailed images. In addition, we proposed criterion for alternatives evaluating of thematic processing. Production rules for interpretation of forest inventory parameters is constructed.
Particularly urgent formulation and solution of various classes of scheduling problems of structural dynamics of complex objects (CO). This article is based on a generalized settheoretic formulation of the problem of planning the structural-functional reconfiguration of the CO is considered a complex model of planning and management of the processing and transfer of material and / or information resources to restructure, and a model of parametric synthesis image of the CO, providing the robustness of its reconfiguration plans under the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the structural dynamics of the CO.
The article discusses the problem of matching the processes of the 3D modeling and 3D prototyping of complex space forms in the technology of cognitive programming. The ways to solve this problem are shown on the example of environment 3D Studio MAX.
The review of the 1st, 2nd, 3, 4 and 5 Russian Conference on the Simulation is presented. The points of view are used methods, language and systems of modeling, application areas. Technologies of interaction of imitating modeling with other types of modeling — analytical, integrated, hybrid are analysed. The main tendencies of modeling specified types development are defined.
Cloud computing model should be adapted for high readiness and security of com-putational resources cloud. In this paper there were investigated relevant taxonomy access of data and services in cloud computing in part of SaaS (Software as a Service) on the base of ontology description of taxonomy to data and service. The types of cloud computing and necessity of standardization in this area are analyzed.
The paper considers an analysis of a protection mechanism against infrastructure attacks based on the bio-inspired approach ―nervous network system‖. We propose to use a network packet-level simulation to investigate the protection mechanism ―nervous network system‖. The paper presents the structure of the protection mechanism, the algorithms of its functioning, and the results of the experiments. Basing on the experimental data, we analyze the effectiveness of the proposed protection mechanism.
The paper offers a method for respondents' behavior modeling based on data about last episodes adjacent to interview and proposes improved techniques of modeling and processing of initial data uncertainty based on hybrid probabilistic and fuzzy approaches. This paper provides analytical (including asymptotic) analysis of these estimates and numerical behavior rate estimates according to the model. Software supplements enabling to fulfill numerical experiments realizing the proposed processing procedures were worked out.
To create effective mechanisms of protection against botnets, it is necessary to investigate the behavior of botnets and their impact on the operation of computer networks, as well as methods for botnet detection and counteraction to them. The paper investigates protection mechanisms against botnets, which are proliferated by worm propagation techniques and carry out DDoS attacks. As a toolkit to study of botnets and protect mechanisms we developed the simulation environment. The paper considers the architecture of the simulation environment implemented and a multitude of experiments which show ample opportunities of the developed simulation environment for research of botnets and protection mechanisms.
In the theory of algebraic Bayesian networks, there are four operations classified as a kind of local synthesis of consistent truth estimates: knowledge pattern consistency verification, knowledge pattern reconciliation, a posteriori inference, and knowledge pattern enclosing reconciliation. The paper presents a knowledge pattern model formalization based on the matrix-vector terms. The model itself is a conjuncts ideal with scalar or interval truth probabilistic estimates. A specification of all four operations of the local synthesis has been introduced in the matrix-vector terms.
Practical necessity of the graph theory expansion is shown, in particular — for the modeling and technical systems investigation. Eshgraph term is suggested. It expands ―graph‖ term. Thus it expands graph theory. Examples of the eshgraph and geometric eshgraph usage are presented
The problem of the modeling of trading assets quoted at the currency markets, shares etc. is considered. The historical review of quotations’ process models evolution is presented. Critical analysis of the basic approaches in the decision of the given problem is carried out. Numerical researches specifying structure of price formation process are presented.
It describes a method of constructing ontology description of grid-applications on the analogy with constructing of ontology description of business process diagrams.
The basic principles for classification and modeling of genetic code on the example of databases and knowledge bases and heterogeneous neural networks.
The article is devoted to сelection of currency tools groups and bias correction manners for group analysis technology improvement.
Mathematical models of systems ""Personality-Activity-Effectiveness"" based on statistical data and allows to predict the effectiveness of the activities of the identity and its psychological features, demanded in modern management. Ability to predict the effectiveness of staff on the results of his testing allows to optimize costs agencies or enterprises and reduce the costs associated with failed solutions in the area of personnel. In this paper, considered a prerequisite for the application of the Bayesian networks approach in modeling systems of such type.
Methods and ways of denial of service attacks realization for marking valuable invariants of system behavior are described. Marking invariants of attacks and information security threats based on defined phase space will let to icrease efficiency of intrusion detection systems. In the future technology of building phase space and marking invariants will let to predict attacks and anomalies appearance in network environment.
We consider different mathematical models, architectures and methods for learning, selforganization and minimization of complexity for heterogeneous polynomial neural networks (PNN) in problems of vector (widened) pattern recognition, data classification and diagnostics of states. Constructive estimates for the heterogeneity index and parallelism in the process of autonomous classifying decision making with the use of PNNs of different kinds are obtained. It is shown that the parallelism, self-organization, and robustness of heterogeneous PNNs can significantly increase in group (multiagent) solutions of difficult problems in pattern recognition, image analysis, large-scale (vector) diagnostics of states, and adaptive routing of data flows.
The complex two-componens model for calculations of bioclimatic structure of the wild reindeers habitat, including functional model energy expenditure for animals and information model of a climate of the habitat is submitted. The complex is intended for the decision of two primary goals — constructions of bioclimatic domains for the habitat and the analysis of influence of those or other combinations of weather-climatic conditions on reindeers. With help of models on the monthly average data bioclimatic calculations of the Taimyr reindeer population habitat are carried out. Imitation experiments are lead also according to influence of air temperature, wind velocity, solar radiation, cloud cover, snow cover condition, size of power inputs of animals and to revealing of critical values of weather-climatic factors. Practical application of results — bioclimatic indication of Arctic regions, the analysis and forecasting of spatial accommodation of animals and their migrations, probable changes of spatial structure of a population at climatic changes.
Paper describes the approach for modeling of cybernetic counteraction of intelligent agents on the example of distributed denial of service attacks and defense mechanisms. The simulation software environment based on OMNeT ++ INET Framework is developed. The environment includes agency components and libraries of attacks and protection mechanisms. The fulfilled experiments are described.
In this paper, the real-time simulation of CdSe quantum-size islands formation on ZnSe surface is considered. In addition, the possible modeling methods, which enable to solve this problem are suggested.
Generalization problems of local mirror properties for primary polarized light scattering of level of multiple light scattering in a uniform slab of final optical thickness is considered. New conceptions of classical radiative transfer theory — polarimetric unified function and polarimetric invariants are introduced. As example the polarized radiation field of system “atmosphere – underlying surface” is considered.
The technology of construction of functional model of object both estimation of its labour input and cyclic complexity is given. The appropriate tool means are briefly considered.
The basic purposes decided by High-Availability systems are considered. The architecture and principles of work of a cluster with various amount of nodes is shown. As a result of experiment, dependence model of availability criterion from cluster architecture is found. Also change of dependence is considered at various ordinal relations between initial characteristics.
The article is devoted to the method of creation models with using only ratio values based on calculation of portions structure are discussed.
Management formation issues in the network organization are considered. New conception of the network organization essence is formed. The conceptual model and integral model of organizing technical means are offered to support the higher education process.
In this article the model of a surface of friction in which macro and micro geometrical deviations from the nominal sizes are taken into account is submitted.
Actual problems of environment spectral polarized radiation fields modeling on the basis of formulated by author the mirror symmetry principle and multiply light scattering theory exact integral equations application are considered. Modern problems of aerospace geoinformatics connected with construction of advanced multifunctional geoinformatics systems are discussed in context of space environment monitoring.
The researches of the Multiphase Method and the robust control algorithm of the fuzzy logic, based on the Model Memory of the Shape, with visual guiding for autonomous robots and space manipulators are submitted. Also, there are submitted the experiments on usage of a method with reference to the task of teaching by showing of assembly robots in a real time with usage 6-coordinates assigning glove. The different versions of assigning reference devices are described. This researches are represented the creation of the new human-machine interface for mini- and micro- robotics, assembly robots for an industry and space.
The article is devoted to the original mathematical models of combat operations developed in Russia at the beginning of the XX century. One of the first works in which approaches to mathematical modeling of military operations were outlined can be considered an article by Y. Karpov «Tactics of fortress artillery», published in 1906. It considered the task of defending the fortress from attacking enemy infantry chains. Based on the idea of the attackers overcoming the line of defense, mathematical relations were obtained linking the parameters of the shot of the shrapnel charge with the movements of the infantryman. Similarly, the task of using a machine gun for the defense of the fortress was considered. After analyzing the obtained ratios, Y. Karpov came to the conclusion that all means of defense of the fortress can be correlated through the length of the area defended by this means. P. Nikitin developed Y. Karpov's ideas. He considered a wide range of means of destruction. Based on the results of the research, the author made recommendations on the distribution of forces and means in the defense of fortresses. M. Osipov in 1915 published vivid and original models of two-way combat operations, a year earlier than the well-known Lanchester theory. Summing up the numbers of the fighting sides at infinitesimal intervals of time, and then moving to the limits, he obtains linear and quadratic laws of the influence of the ratio of the number of the fighting sides on their losses, and explores heterogeneous means of destruction. All this is verified by the practice of various battles. M. Osipov showed that the coefficients in the laws of losses depend on the training of personnel, terrain, the presence of fortifications, the moral and psychological state of the troops, etc. Based on the results of mathematical modeling, M. Osipov for the first time substantiated a number of provisions of the art of war. He showed that neither linear nor quadratic laws of losses in general do not correspond to the practice of the battles conducted. For ease of use at that level of computer technology development and to obtain a more reliable result, M. Osipov proposed using the degree of "three second" in the laws of losses, although he himself understood its approximate nature. Much attention is paid to the problem of authorship, the search for a prototype of the creator of the first two-sided model of combat operations, and the application of theory to solve modern applied problems.
On the Internet, "fake news" is a common phenomenon that frequently disturbs society because it contains intentionally false information. The issue has been actively researched using supervised learning for automatic fake news detection. Although accuracy is increasing, it is still limited to identifying fake information through channels on social platforms. This study aims to improve the reliability of fake news detection on social networking platforms by examining news from unknown domains. Especially, information on social networks in Vietnam is difficult to detect and prevent because everyone has equal rights to use the Internet for different purposes. These individuals have access to several social media platforms. Any user can post or spread the news through online platforms. These platforms do not attempt to verify users or the content of their locations. As a result, some users try to spread fake news through these platforms to propagate against an individual, a society, an organization, or a political party. In this paper, we proposed analyzing and designing a model for fake news recognition using Deep learning (called AAFNDL). The method to do the work is: 1) First, we analyze the existing techniques such as Bidirectional Encoder Representation from Transformer (BERT); 2) We proceed to build the model for evaluation; and finally, 3) We approach some Modern techniques to apply to the model, such as the Deep Learning technique, classifier technique and so on to classify fake information. Experiments show that our method can improve by up to 8.72% compared to other methods.
The article is devoted to the development of model-algorithmic support and software tools for automating the integration of Earth remote sensing data and other heterogeneous information resources in solving problems of monitoring and proactive management of territories development. A distinctive feature of the problem statement is the inclusion of tools for modeling the state of natural and technical objects located in the analyzed territory into the resources should be integrated. The development is based on the justification of the technology for integrating heterogeneous information resources, which includes an algorithm for choosing the type of architecture for the created automation tool complex, a method for describing the information process of integrating data and their joint processing, an algorithm for determining the best configuration of information resources when solving thematic problems, as well as a set of software and technological solutions for integration of remote sensing data with other necessary data and their joint use in modeling. As a result of research and developed algorithms application, it has been established that the most preferred type of systems’ architecture for integrating heterogeneous information resources is a service-oriented architecture. To describe the information integration process, it is proposed to use a Business Process Model and Notation. The key component of the development in terms of software and technological solutions for the integration of heterogeneous data is the proposed interaction scheme with data providers and consumers based on data abstraction layer creation. The application of the proposed solution allows you to bring heterogeneous data to a single format suitable for further processing on modeling tools. The testing carried out on specific thematic tasks of monitoring and managing the territories’ development showed the feasibility of the proposed integration technology and the developed software tools, as well as the achievement of a significant gain in the rapidness of solving thematic tasks.
An effective economy requires prompt prevention of misconduct of legal entities. With the ever-increasing transaction rate, an important part of this work is finding market collusions based on statistics of electronic traces. We report a solution to this problem based on a quantum-theoretical approach to behavioral modeling. In particular, cognitive states of economic subjects are represented by complex-valued vectors in space formed by the basis of decision alternatives, while decision probabilities are defined by projections of these states to the corresponding directions. Coordination of multilateral behavior then corresponds to entanglement of the joint cognitive state, measured by standard metrics of quantum theory. A high score of these metrics indicates the likelihood of collusion between the considered subjects. The resulting method for collusion discovery was tested with open data on the participation of legal entities in public procurement between 2015 and 2020 available at the federal portal https://zakupki.gov.ru. Quantum models are built for about 80 thousand unique pairs and 10 million unique triples of agents in the obtained dataset. The reliability of collusion discovery was defined by comparison with open data of Federal antimonopoly service available at https://br.fas.gov.ru. The achieved performance allows the discovery of about one-half of known pairwise collusions with a reliability of more than 50%, which is comparable with detection based on classical correlation and mutual information. For three-sided behavior, in contrast, the quantum model is practically the only available option since classical measures are typically limited to the bilateral case. Half of such collusions are detected with a reliability of 40%. The obtained results indicate the efficiency of the quantum-probabilistic approach to modeling economic behavior. The developed metrics can be used as informative features in analytic systems and algorithms of machine learning for this field.
One of the most important tasks in practical agricultural activity is the identification of agricultural crops, both those growing in individual fields at the moment and those that grew in these fields earlier. To reduce the complexity of the identification process in recent years, data from remote sensing of the Earth (remote sensing), including the values of vegetation indices calculated during the growing season, have been used. At the same time, processing optical satellite images and obtaining reliable index values is often difficult, which is due to cloud cover during the shooting. To solve this problem, the article suggests using the seasonal course curve of the radar vegetation index with double polarization (DpRVI) as the main indicator characterizing agricultural crops. In the period 2017-2020, 48 radar images of the Khabarovsk Municipal District of the Khabarovsk Territory from the Sentinel-1 satellite were received and processed to identify crops in the experimental fields of the Far Eastern Research Institute of Agriculture (FEARI) (resolution 22 m, shooting interval - 12 days). Soybeans and oats were the main identified crops. Pixels of fields not occupied by these crops (forage grasses, abandoned fields) were also added. The series of values of DpRVI were obtained both for individual pixels and fields, and approximated series for three classes. The approximation was carried out using the Gaussian function, the double logistic function, the square and cubic polynomials. It is established that the optimal approximation algorithm is the use of a double logistic function (the average error was 4.6%). On average, the approximation error of the vegetation index for soybeans did not exceed 5%, for perennial grasses – 8.5%, and for oats - 11%. For experimental fields with a total area of 303 hectares with a known crop rotation, the classification was carried out by the weighted method of k nearest neighbors (the training sample was formed according to the data of 2017-2019, the test sample -2020). As a result, 90% of the fields were correctly identified, and the overall pixel classification accuracy was 73%, which made it possible to identify the discrepancy between the actual boundaries of the fields declared to identify abandoned and swampy areas. Thus, it is established that the DpRVI index can be used to identify agricultural crops in the south of the Far East and serve as the basis for the automatic classification of arable land.
The paper presents the results of statistical data from open sources on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic processing and a study сarried out to determine the place and time of its beginning in Russia. An overview of the existing models of the processes of the epidemic development and methods for solving direct and inverse problems of its analysis is given. A model for the development of the COVID-19 epidemic via a transport network of nine Russian cities is proposed: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk and Vladivostok. The cities are selected both by geographic location and by the number of population. The model consists of twenty seven differential equations. An algorithm for reverse analysis of the epidemic model has been developed. The initial data for solving the problem were the data on the population, the intensity of process transitions from one state to another, as well as data on the infection rate of the population at given time moments. The paper also provides the results of a detailed analysis of the solution approaches to modeling the development of epidemics by type of model (basic SEIR model, SIRD model, adaptive behavioral model, modified SEIR models), and by country (in Poland, France, Spain, Greece and others) and an overview of the applications that can be solved using epidemic spread modeling. Additional environmental parameters that affect the modeling of the spread of epidemics and can be taken into account to improve the accuracy of the results are considered. Based on the results of the modeling, the most likely source cities of the epidemic beginning in Russia, as well as the moment of its beginning, have been identified. The reliability of the estimates obtained is largely determined by the reliability of the statistics used on the development of COVID-19 and the available data on transportation network, which are in the public domain.
The paper is devoted to the forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic by the novel method of randomized machine learning. This method is based on the idea of estimation of probability distributions of model parameters and noises on real data. Entropy-optimal distributions correspond to the state of maximum uncertainty which allows the resulting forecasts to be used as forecasts of the most "negative" scenario of the process under study. The resulting estimates of parameters and noises, which are probability distributions, must be generated, thus obtaining an ensemble of trajectories that considered to be analyzed by statistical methods. In this work, for the purposes of such an analysis, the mean and median trajectories over the ensemble are calculated, as well as the trajectory corresponding to the mean over distribution values of the model parameters. The proposed approach is used to predict the total number of infected people using a three-parameter logistic growth model. The conducted experiment is based on real COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries of the European Union. The main goal of the experiment is to demonstrate an entropy-randomized approach for predicting the epidemic process based on real data near the peak. The significant uncertainty contained in the available real data is modeled by an additive noise within 30%, which is used both at the training and predicting stages. To tune the hyperparameters of the model, the scheme is used to configure them according to a testing dataset with subsequent retraining of the model. It is shown that with the same datasets, the proposed approach makes it possible to predict the development of the epidemic more efficiently in comparison with the standard approach based on the least-squares method.
The paper examines the possibility of using an alternative approach to predicting statistical indicators of a new COVID-19 virus type epidemic. A systematic review of models for predicting epidemics of new infections in foreign and Russian literature is presented. The accuracy of the SIR model for the spring 2020 wave of COVID-19 epidemic forecast in Russia is analyzed. As an alternative to modeling the epidemic spread using the SIR model, a new CIR discrete stochastic model is proposed based on the balance of the epidemic indicators at the current and past time points. The new model describes the dynamics of the total number of cases (C), the total number of recoveries and deaths (R), and the number of active cases (I). The system parameters are the percentage increase in the C(t) value and the characteristic of the dynamic balance of the epidemiological process, first introduced in this paper. The principle of the dynamic balance of epidemiological process assumes that any process has the property of similarity between the value of the total number of cases in the past and the value of the total number of recoveries and deaths at present. To calculate the values of the dynamic balance characteristic, an integer linear programming problem is used. In general, the dynamic characteristic of the epidemiological process is not constant. An epidemiological process the dynamic characteristic of which is not constant is called non-stationary. To construct mid-term forecasts of indicators of the epidemiological process at intervals of stationarity of the epidemiological process, a special algorithm has been developed. The question of using this algorithm on the intervals of stationarity and non-stationarity is being examined. Examples of the CIR model application for making forecasts of the considered indicators for the epidemic in Russia in May-June 2020 are given.
The problem of detecting anomalous documents in text collections is considered. The existing methods for detecting anomalies are not universal and do not show a stable result on different data sets. The accuracy of the results depends on the choice of parameters at each step of the problem solving algorithm process, and for different collections different sets of parameters are optimal. Not all of the existing algorithms for detecting anomalies work effectively with text data, which vector representation is characterized by high dimensionality with strong sparsity. The problem of finding anomalies is considered in the following statement: it is necessary to checking a new document uploaded to an applied intelligent information system for congruence with a homogeneous collection of documents stored in it. In such systems that process legal documents the following limitations are imposed on the anomaly detection methods: high accuracy, computational efficiency, reproducibility of results and explicability of the solution. Methods satisfying these conditions are investigated. The paper examines the possibility of evaluating text documents on the scale of anomaly by deliberately introducing a foreign document into the collection. A strategy for detecting novelty of the document in relation to the collection is proposed, which assumes a reasonable selection of methods and parameters. It is shown how the accuracy of the solution is affected by the choice of vectorization options, tokenization principles, dimensionality reduction methods and parameters of novelty detection algorithms. The experiment was conducted on two homogeneous collections of documents containing technical norms: standards in the field of information technology and railways. The following approaches were used: calculation of the anomaly index as the Hellinger distance between the distributions of the remoteness of documents to the center of the collection and to the foreign document; optimization of the novelty detection algorithms depending on the methods of vectorization and dimensionality reduction. The vector space was constructed using the TF-IDF transformation and ARTM topic modeling. The following algorithms have been tested: Isolation Forest, Local Outlier Factor and One-Class SVM (based on Support Vector Machine). The experiment confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed optimization strategy for determining the appropriate method for detecting anomalies for a given text collection. When searching for an anomaly in the context of topic clustering of legal documents, the Isolating Forest method is proved to be effective. When vectorizing documents using TF-IDF, it is advisable to choose the optimal dictionary parameters and use the One-Class SVM method with the corresponding feature space transformation function.
A lot of network management tasks require a description of the logical and physical computer network topology. Obtaining such a description in an automatic way is complicated due to the possibility of incompleteness and incorrectness of the initial data on the network structure. This article provides a study on the properties of incomplete initial data on network device connectivity on the link layer. Methods for generalized handling of the heterogeneous input data on the link layer are included. We describe models and methods for deriving a missing part of the data, as well as the condition in which it is possible to get a single correct network topology description. The article includes algorithms for building a link layer topology description from incomplete data when this data is possible to fulfill up to the required level. Also, we provide methods for detecting and resolving an ambiguity in the data and methods for improving incorrect initial data. Tests and evaluations provided in the article demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the build methods for discovering various heterogeneous real-life networks. Additionally, we show advantages of the provided methods over the previous analogs: our methods are able to derive up to 99% data on link layer connectivity in polynomial time; able to provide a correct solution from an ambiguous data.
The given work describes a technology of construction of neural network system of artificial intellect (AI) at a junction of declarative programming and machine training on the basis of modelling of cortical columns. Evolutionary mechanisms, using available material and relatively simple phenomena, have created complex intelligent systems. From this, the authors conclude that AI should also be based on simple but scalable and biofeasible algorithms, in which the stochastic dynamics of cortical neural modules allow to find solutions to of complex problems quickly and efficiently.. Purpose: Algorithmic formalization at the level of replicative neural network complexes - neocortex columns of the brain. Methods: The basic AI module is presented as a specialization and formalization of the concept "Chinese room" introduced by John Earle. The results of experiments on forecasting binary sequences are presented. The computer simulation experiments have shown high efficiency in implementing the proposed algorithms. At the same time, instead of using for each task a carefully selected and adapted separate method with partially equivalent restatement of tasks, the standard unified approach and unified algorithm parameters were used. It is concluded that the results of the experiments show the possibility of effective applied solutions based on the proposed technology. Practical value: the presented technology allows creating self-learning and planning systems.
The short historical sketch of researches of efficiency of systems functioning purposeful processes is given in this paper. The review of some relevant research problems of the operational properties solved abroad is provided.
On the basis of the analysis of features of efficiency research of systems functioning purposeful processes, as well as research of other operational properties, such as effectiveness, performance, operational and dynamic capabilities by domestic and foreign authors, the conclusion is drawn on relevance of the solution of some modern research problems on the basis of analytical estimation of operational properties indicators. A number of new systems and processes of their functioning operational properties researches directions is given. Among them, there are system capability (potentiality) and information technologies capability. Features of agile (dynamical, improved due to environment impact) systems and processes of their functioning, a role of information technologies are considered during functioning of such agile systems.
Main features of systems improvement and details of transition processes of such systems functioning improvement are described. The role of information technologies for systems improvement is discussed. The obtained results allowed to conduct research of operational properties of the improved systems, research of information technologies usage during system functioning. Examples of models of the improved system functioning effects formation are offered. Such models are developed taking into account the realization of information and non-information actions during the improved system functioning.
For the unified estimation of indicators of operational properties the method of analytical estimation of operational properties is offered. This method is based on the sequence of operational properties estimation schemes use. The sequence of the three schemes of operational properties estimation, which allows to estimate all described operational properties. Features of estimation of systems operational properties using the offered estimation method are revealed. The obtained results should allow to proceed to the solution of research problems of systems operational properties based on mathematical models use. An example of operational properties of information technology use indicators calculation is provided.
Nowadays, the systems developed to integrate real physical processes and virtual computational processes — the cyber-physical systems (CPS), are used in multiple areas of industry and critical national infrastructure, such as manufacturing, medicine, traffic management and security, automotive engineering, industrial process control, energy saving, ecological management, industrial robots, technical infrastructure management, distributed robotic systems, protection target systems, nanotechnology and biological systems technology. With wide use, the level of IT and cyberrisks increases drastically and successful attacks against the CPS will lead to unmanageable and unimaginable consequence. Thus, the need in well-designed risk assessment system of CPS is clear and such system can provide an overall view of CPS security status and support efficient allocations of safeguard resources. The nature of CPS differs from IT mainly with the requirement for real-time operations, thus, traditional risk assessment method for IT system can be adopted in CPS. Design of a unified modelling language based domain specific language described in this paper achieves synergy from in IT industry widely used UML modelling technique and the domain specific risk management extensions. As a novelty for UML modelling, especially for simulation purposes, the presented DSL is enriched by a set of stochastic attributes of modelled activities. Such stochastic attributes are usable for further implementation of discrete-event system simulators.
The paper offers an approach for assessment of cyber-resilience of computer networks based on analytical simulation of computer attacks using a stochastic networks conversion method. The concept of cyber-resilience of computer networks is justified. The mathematical foundations of its assessment, allowing to calculate cyber-resilience indices by means of analytical expressions, are considered. The coefficient of serviceability on cyber-resilience is offered to be used as the key such indicator. The considered approach assumes the creation of analytical models of cyber-attacks. The method of the stochastic networks conversion is applied to create analytical models of cyber-attacks. The time distribution function and average time to implement cyber-attacks are the simulation results. These estimates are used then to search cyber-resilience indices. The experimental results of analytical simulation which showed that the offered approach has rather high accuracy and stability of the received solutions are given
. In article new approach to simulation and design of infocommunication systems, in which hierarchical multi-level routing is provided, is offered. Authors considered elements of a set-theoretic base and system of models of infocommunication system, operating not only traditional model elements – bipolar communication networks, – but also the multiple segments such as circuit, star, ring and tree. With use of provisions of the theory of sets to the basic concepts and procedures of a reference model of open system interconnection authors put in compliance mathematical objects providing the strict formal description of infocommunication system in which multipath multiple address physical and logical connections "point-to-multipoint", "multipoint-to-point", "multipoint-to-multipoint" are implemented. On the example of simulation of property of structural reliability of specific infocommunication system constructibility, visualization and systemacity of the developed approach are shown.
In this paper, we describe an approach to multi-label classification of text documents based on probabilistic topic modeling. On the basis of SCTM-ru a topic model has been built with the help of supervised learning. A multi-label classification algorithm is presented. We propose tools for multi-label classification implementing this approach.
This paper considers the task of implementing proactive control of robotic systems (RS) for rescuing victims. The use of a wide range of sensory elements in the RS allows one to expand the list of monitored parameters and to generate the control action with the use of predictive and proactive capabilities based on the methods and technology of integrated modeling. A complex of models for making decisions about assistance to victims is presented. The efficiency of such decisions is evaluated.
The paper presents the results of research in the field of the development of technol-ogies for processing heterogeneous information from the UAV onboard ma-chine vision system with the aim of UAV navigation and control. The main problems of information processing for UAV navigation and control are considered; general tasks to be solved for mission planning and performing are formulated. The key problems of the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) machine vision system are multiband image processing and fusion (both for flight planning and onboard processing), object detection and localization, object tracking, object recognition. Modern methods of object detection, recognition and tracking are analyzed. Advanced techniques and algorithms are compared, and the most effective ones are determined. New original methods are proposed for multiband images fusion based on diffuse morphology. The original methods are developed for deep machine learning, which provide high probabilities of given object detection and recognition. The database of model images for machine learning algorithms is created. The characteristics of the developed algorithms and results of their tests on model and real data are presented.
We present the results of the research on the planning of routes of unmanned vehicles (autonomous moving objects). The routing is based on the multivariant route model (MRM) formed a priori as a set of alternative paths from an initial point to the target one.. The MRM construction is done using the computer method of functional voxel modeling, combining the analytical form of describing a 3D-environment with the voxel representation of its local geometrical characteristics. Synthesis of the motion control and stabilization of the path trajectory are done by representing the control object as a multimode model and applying the reduction method to it.
The article describes the basics of creating operational river flood forecasting systems, based on the integrated use of modern information technologies and integrated proactive modeling. Their practical implementation is also shown. The distinctive features of the proposed interdisciplinary approach are: a) the widespread use of heterogeneous data from a network of gauging stations and Earth remote sensing satellites; b) implementation of forecasting systems based on service-oriented architecture; c) creation of an intelligent interface for selecting the type and parameter setting of hydrological models; d) ensuring convenient and accessible presentation of the forecast results using web-services. Practical testing of the developed software prototype has confirmed the possibility of automatic high-precision operational (from several hours to several days) forecasting of floodingzones and depths of river valleys.
The memory role in modeling of anticipatory behavior is noted. The article depicts the most studied human memory capabilities and features of the occurrence of cognitive and reflexive processes in it. Requirements to memory of the cybersystem capable of synthesizing scenarios of anticipatory behavior in the conflict during an anticipation are formulated.
The problem of multiregression estimation of the currency cost is considered. The offered approach is based on an adaptive choice of the regressors formed by group of currency pairs, the most correlated with an estimated asset. In the conditions of chaotic dynamics of currency quotations, correlation degree between currency pairs changes in time. From here the problem of adaptive estimation with variable structure of group of regressors follows. The method of evolutionary modeling is used for an assessment of the potential prize, reached when using the corresponding control strategy.
This paper describes the process of creating Russian language text corpus which is specialized for testing algorithms of probabilistic topic model. The articles of Wikinews licensed by Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Generic (CC BY 2.5) were used as a source of texts for corpus. The stage of text's preprocessing and markup are described in the conclusion. We proposed an original markup of text corpus for testing algorithms of topic modeling.
This work is devoted to the development of structural meta-model arbitrary protocol information interaction. This meta-model can be used to create formal models of various protocols, construction of automatic decoders by model, storage and exchange of information on protocols. Its use simplifies many application tasks of data analysis, tasks of comparing various protocols, study effect of errors in the communication channel on correctness of decoding.
A complex of new models of non-stationary queuing systems with finite source is presented. In contrast to traditional models of queuing theory the proposed models allow to describe the processes of customers servicing in the specified time interval under general assumptions on the time distribution between customer arrival and service. The article presents the principles of such models development, their graphical interpretation and formulae for computation of probabilistic and time characteristics as well as Chapman—Kolmogorov differential equations systems.
The technique of formalization of fuzzy predicates together with crisp logical variables for the specification of fuzzy logic-dynamic situations and crisp logical commands is considered. The technique is based on the submission of crisp and fuzzy logic variables by means of membership functions and on the use of fuzzy inference rules. Here we only used the forms of presentation of fuzzy logic functions which are also suitable for presentation of crisp logic functions. By the examples the possibility of using the considered technique for the computer implementation of hybrid processes is shown.
The paper introduces a situational conceptual model designed to investigate complicated spatial systems, Industry-Natural Complexes (INCs) in particular, that provides automation of every modelling stage with possibilities to equally treat information from calculating modules, which simulate parts of an INC, and from integrated GIS and expert system. This approach is featured with wide usage of expert knowledge, employment of the GIS not for object mapping only, but for task setting, spatial-dependent calculations and modelling results' displaying as well.
In the paper, selection of best phoneme set for Russian automatic speech recognition is described. For the acoustic modeling, we describe a method based on combination of knowledge-based and statistical approaches to create several different phoneme sets. Applying this method to the Russian phonetic set of the IPA (International Phonetic Alphabet) alphabet, we first reduced it to 47 phonological units and derived several other phoneme sets with different number of phonological units from 27 till 47. Speech recognition experiments using these sets showed that reduced phoneme sets are better for phoneme recognition task and as good for word level speech recognition. For experiment with extra-large vocabulary, we used syntactico-statistical language model, which allowed us to achieve the word recognition accuracy of 73.1%. The results correspond to continuous Russian speech recognition quality obtained by other organizations up to date.
The article describes the models and methods of design automation processes functioning man-machine systems based on functional-structural theory of man-machine systems and generalized structural method of prof. A.I. Gubinsky. Describes the basic concepts and definitions of the functional-structural theory. An algorithm for generating a series-parallel connection operations with the additional constraints, the algorithm generating alternatives process of man-machine systems based on the coincidence of the objectives of operations, the algorithm generating parametric alternatives based on a template. The basic concepts and definitions necessary for the generation algorithm of process fragments with the mandatory combinations of operations. Proposed the use of combinations of binding matrix operations, in which the nonzero elements of rows are meaningful only possible combinations of standard ways of performing the relevant functional units in alternatives. Introduced the concept of the composition and the concept of incompatibility steam trains, on the basis of which the distribution of functions performed compositions. Describes the integration of optimization models processes functioning man-machine systems with simulation method, as of the functional-structural theory is only applicable for processes without aftereffect and in the absence of dependent operations. Suggested remedy this limitation by integrating design technology processes functioning man-machine systems based on the functional-structural theory with the method of simulation of the process areas that are not fulfilled the above requirements of the functional-structural theory.
In this paper we propose an improved methodology and technology of simulation studies of complex systems as a result of development and improvement of the traditional methodology. The main difference is the improved methodology consistent automation of the process of research and the integration of all programs in a single complex. Software systems that are created on the basis of this methodology allowed an average cut several times during the study of complex systems and significantly increase the number of potential users of simulation
In the article the structure of a problematic of the theory of system (system-cybernetic) researches is considered. Results of the corresponding morphological analysis are presented in the form of the morphological tree containing four branches (modeling–the analysis–observation–a choice) and 57 leaves — individual tasks.
In article, on the example of the tasks arising at research of products properties, created at the enterprises of a military-industrial complex, problems of operational and ex-change properties of complex technical systems research are investigated. Operational properties of systems characterize results (effects) of activity with use of systems (op-erational properties, in particular, are efficiency of system functioning for achievement of the given objective, system potential, system capabilities). Exchange properties characterize properties of exchange of results of activity (exchange properties, in par-ticular, are competitiveness of a product, competitiveness of the enterprise). As shown, it is expedient to study exchange properties of systems using the concept and method-ology of estimation of operational properties of systems. Indicators for operational properties estimation proposed and on their basis indicators for exchange properties of the systems suggested. Indicators suggested in such a way that their estimation suppose usage of mathematical models. This gives the chance to solve a range of research prob-lems of operational and exchange properties of systems. Need of definition of concept is proved, and then the concept of model of a research problem proposed. The direc-tions of research problems models usage for automation of the solution of operational and exchange properties research problems discussed.
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is relatively new method for analysis of non-stationary time series. The weakness of SSA is lack of analytical model representation of time series, e.g., as a sum of simple functions, which could be clearer and easier for interpretation than a large number of components in form of time series. In this paper we propose to use variative modeling, based on joint use of SSA and method of modeleteka, for obtaining of analytical model of time series, providing necessary level of adequacy, compactness and interpretability. First, time series are decomposed into components using SSA, significant components are selected using formal indicators (e.g. variance contributed by component, etc.). Second, each significant component is identified according to the purpose of identification with simple and interpretable model from preformed modeleteka. The result is final model of time series in additive or additive-multiplicative form. Applicability of the method is shown on synthetic data and time series of daily changes of water turbidity in the river in the city of Chelyabinsk in 2005.
The paper presents dialogue management module for a mobile robot as a guide. The model of the dialog management is presented as a network of transitions between states depending on two factors: visual and communicative. Details of the dialogue management module are presented.
The article deals with methodology of teaching medical students computer modeling, which improves students’ information and technological competence and has positive effect on learning process in general. It shows the process of choosing teaching method, identifies types of educational activities of students and describes technological actions that enhance knowledge acquisition.
The possibility to use based on the transformational rules transitive approach for the specification and the computer implementation of continuous processes is considered. The examples show techniques of the processes initial specifications conversion in the specifications as sets of transformation rules. As starting specifications in the form of a physical model, the block diagram of dynamic links, in the form of ordinary differential equations are considered. These examples demonstrate the simplicity, clarity and versatility of this approach. Some problems of implementation of the processes specified by using rules are briefly discussed. The resulting model implementations of processes are evaluated using analytical methods and compared with the numerical solutions found using Matlab and MathCad.
In article new approaches to the assessment of people health based on integrated indicator are considered. Mathematical model of integrated indicator calculation is described. The testing of the proposed model and the indicator was conducted with the patients of medical health care institutions.
A model multimodal sensory environment «INFANT.MAVS», comprising two base stimuli of different perceptual complexity - simple (visual, audible, tactile and graphic) and base of complex stimuli synthesized on the basis of a combination of simple, is elaborated. The software includes a management component model created database and the database itself. Management component is created with Microsoft Visual Basic v.6.0 and is designed to run on operating systems of MS Windows.
There is presented the definition of logic-dynamic situation that is used in specifying the operation of hybrid dynamic systems, including hybrid control systems. The influence of random effects on the behavior of systems is discussed. The methods of estimating the probabilities of occurrence of situations based on estimates of the statistical characteristics of random processes are considered. There show how to use estimates of the probabilities for the control and decision support. The results of experimental research of methods under consideration are given.
The paper presents an approach to model and identify defects in software code to improve their quality. The basis of the approach lies in the graph representation of the application source code and its complex analysis.
In the paper is considered the task of control the process of information interaction in heterogeneous virtual network of cyber-objects. We propose the infrastructure model that allows using various technologies of OSI transport layer, including multi-protocol wireless data exchange tools. The simulation results of access to telematics services confirm the possibility of creating sustainable delay-tolerant virtual channels.
Means of use of based on transition rules formalism for determinate processes specification for random processes implementation and their characteristic estimation are considered. A short description of the formalism and methods of its use for simulation of dynamical systems in the presence of random impacts are presented. Methods of realization of random processes with specified statistic properties and methods of random ergodic process numerical characteristic and correlation functions estimation are discussed. Examples of random process implementations and results of their characteristics and correlation functions estimations are produced.
The analysis of a current state of researches in the field of an information technology of designing of the automated systems of monitoring is carried out. The approach to creation of the distributed system of the information on the control of a condition of space objects and objects of a land space infrastructure on the basis of a modern information technology of the automated gathering, integration and the complex analysis of all types of information, circulating in a contour as separate management information system (MIS) of technological processes, and management information system of preparation and start-up and management information system of the cosmodrome as a whole, and creations of a multilevel management information system of the cosmodrome with use of modern principles of the organization of the corporative information systems is offered.
The paper presents the application of space and ground monitoring technologies to a vital problem of spring floods. The following are main topics discussed in the paper: the data necessary for flood modeling, flood monitoring technologies and approaches as well as flood forecasting systems. The particular focus is on the application of developed flood monitoring system to the situation of flood forecasting in Daugavpils on a river Daugava. The explored example illustrates synergetic effect of integration space and ground monitoring technologies for solving natural problems by this allowing prediction and evaluation of natural disasters as floods.
Leading manufacturers of computer systems and technologies realize the importance of adaptive control and self-organization in information infrastructure of the XXI century. New adaptive technologies were already called “natural” and “organic” (Organic IT). Analysis of modern evolution tendencies for information system and technologies are discussed in the paper. Conception and methods of integrated modeling of self-organization computing technologies in critical applications are presented.
A novel method for procedural modeling of clouds is described in the paper. An analytical form of the cloud structure for a lot of different types of clouds and cloud layer is proposed. The given method has practical realization and application in virtual reality systems of flight simulators.
The paper deals with current status and perspectives of municipal wastes management and monitoring system for Leningrad oblast. Covered some aspects of wastes transport logistics, determination of most suitable places for new landfills allocation constrained by ecological requirements, usage of crowdsourcing data for identification of illegal waste dumps
The paper presents the basic components of the methodology of iterative attack modelling in large computer networks, which constitues formal model, analysis algorithms for probabilistic attack graphs and software. Formal model of iterative attack modelling process involves the process models of task definition modelling, attack model building, model execution and model result analysis. Probabilistic attack graph analysis algorithms provide calculation of security metrics and finding attack sub-graphs associated with intruder action scripts. Software tools for attack model analysis in large computer networks provide their static analysis and analysis of dynamic characteristics.
Cyber warfare marks a new level of information confrontation occurring in computer infrastructure. New and very promising area of information security in conditions of cyber warfare is to build the system of intelligent information protection services. The system of intelligent information protection services uses the technology of security information and event management, which enables to withstand cyber-attacks and cyber terrorism and to ensure the necessary level of infrastructure cyber security. The paper discusses the basic issues for development a system of intelligent protection services and its individual components. Based on the analysis of general regulations for realizing a system of intelligent information protection services, the paper provides a number of basic approaches for implementation intelligent services, such as services for collecting, converting and storing information about security events, services for modeling of attacks and protection system behavior, security decision support services and information visualization services.
The paper is intended to analyze attack modeling problems in large computer networks with the use of different models, methods and tools. The famous models, as well as methods and tools for attack modelling are examined in detail on the basis of the characteristics of large networks as information security related objects and objects of attack, and directions for further development are provided. The role of information security requirements in attack modeling iterations is shown. Examples of attack modeling problems associated with different types of NOT-factors are presented.
Application of SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) technology is promising in the field of information protection, especially for critical infrastructures. The paper considers the general issues of construction and operation of systems that implement this technology. The known implementations of such systems are described. The paper also discusses the peculiarities of the MASSIF project of the seventh framework program of the European Union which is devoted to advanced SIEM systems. We outline two key tasks of the project associated with the analysis of security events, based on the modeling of network attacks, and building the SIEM repository.
Advantages of a physics approach to dynamic systems simulation are discussed. A great need for the approach at the modern state of system engineering is pointed out. In particular, such an approach may be useful for simulation of control and self-organizing systems. A situation-event formalism of an interacting hybrid process specification is briefly stated and some ways of its use for physic simulation model implementation are shown. Facilities of the considered methods are illustrated by examples of some simple dynamic system models implementations. — Bibl. 9 items.
This article is devoted to modern computer speech technology in queuing systems for the population. Problems of working out of the effective and convenient speech interface, methods of detection and correction of errors of recognition, model for the comparative analysis of speech dialogue scenarios, mathematical models for calculation of service characteristics of demands and optimization of functioning contact centers with self-service on the basis of speech recognition are considered.
The approach is based on using of the known situation-event formalism of an interacting hybrid processes specification. A short description of the formalism is set out. Some advantages of its using for dynamic systems computer implementation are pointed out and its abilities for processes coordination are discussed. Hybrid processes coordination methods based on it and peculiarities of their usage are reviewed. Instances of automatic coordination systems which illustrate some methods usage are given.
Advantages of compound dynamic systems presentation in the form of an interacting subsystem models complex are discussed. A holonic complex structure and expanded situationevent formalism of hybrid processes specification are proposed. The formalism enables to specify model processes taking into consideration an interaction of the processes between each other and with the environment. It is shown that the formalism proposed enables to simulate system structure changes. Some problems of the model complex realization are considered. A model complex realized in terms of the formalism proposed is produced as an illustrative example. The complex enables to simulate automatic coordination of processes, which occur in two systems of automatic positioning a roll on a plane.
The problem of creation of methodological and technological support of processes of creation of the structured knowledge of models of functioning(operation) of technical systems and decision rules on handle(control) of their states is considered(examined). The concept of its(her) solution grounded on construction obshchesistemnyh of prototypes of such models and rules for a class «technical systems» is offered.