In this paper, from a cybernetic perspective, the human-nature interactions are considered in the context of modern climate change, unprecedented in its scale and rate caused by anthropogenic activity. The developed structure of the “climate-economy” cybernetic system is presented, the weaknesses of the global governance bodies are analysed, and the main causes of the uncertainties in assessing climate change and the economic damage caused by this change are discussed. It is noted that adaptation measures and strategies developed and implemented by governments of different countries and intergovernmental organizations do not eliminate the causes of global warming and, therefore, have limited capacities, since humans and nature can exist only under specified environmental conditions. Going beyond these conditions, due to climate change, can lead to a global biological catastrophe. Climate policy decisions are made under uncertainty due to the ambiguity of estimates of the future climate, which, in turn, is the result of an insufficiently adequate description of feedbacks in the climate system models. Using low-parametric models of the Earth's climate system, the influence of system’s feedbacks on tangible inter-model differences of climate change estimates obtained using modern climate models of a high degree of complexity is illustrated. Since the climate change adaptation measures proposed by experts are not the struggle with causes, but the fight with consequences, we see geoengineering as a radical adaptation strategy. In contrast to previous studies, we consider the problem of purposefully modifying climatic conditions, implemented by geoengineering methods, within the framework of optimal control theory with mathematical formalization of geoengineering objectives and methods for achieving them. In this paper, an example of the formulation and solution of the optimization problem for stabilizing the Earth’s climate through the injection of finely dispersed sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere is presented.
Anthropogenic climate change requires the development of methods to prevent global warming. One of the possible geoengineering ways to stabilize climate is a manipulation of the solar radiation influx by forming artificial aerosol clouds in the stratosphere. The effectiveness of such activities is usually estimated on the basis of numerical modeling outside of the optimal control theory, without the formulation of the objective functional. In this paper, a zero-dimensional energy-balance climate model is discussed, and its basic properties are analyzed that are important from the viewpoint of the development of optimal control systems for climate and weather. On the basis of the model we evaluated the effects of intentional manipulations of the solar radiation influx on the global mean surface temperature. Since the obtained estimates are consistent with the results of previous studies, the present model can be considered as a basis for developing physically sound and technically feasible methods of optimal climate and weather control.
A unified methodology for planning and implementation of weather and climate modification (geoengineering) can be apparently developed based on the ideas and methods of geophysical cybernetics in which the climate system and its processes represent a control object and the role of the controlling subsystem is given to the appropriate social structures and, in particular, to operators having the necessary resources. This problem can be solved based on the sensitivity theory of dynamical systems. In this paper, as an example, we study the impact of the main parameters that control the development of baroclinic instability in the atmosphere on the growth rate of unstable waves. Analytical expressions for the absolute and relative sensitivity coefficients are obtained, which allows estimating the model response to the control parameters and, therefore, drawing a conclusion about the hypothetical ability to control the large-scale wave dynamics in the atmosphere and ocean. Selecting the baroclinic instability as a subject of this study is due to the significant role of this physical mechanism in the formation of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, and, consequently, the Earth's climate.
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