AProbabilistic Characteristics of Information System Security Changes under Unauthorized Access
Abstract
Purpose: Forecasting information system security in respect to violators’ unauthorized access, and determining the periodicity of information security management. Method: The emergence and prevention of the information security threats are represented in the form of streams of random events with preset statistical characteristics. The security dynamics is formally described by a probabilistic model of conflict interaction with a violator. Results: Under prior uncertainty, it is recommended to postulate exponential distribution of time necessary for a violator to break the protection. A model is developed to ground the best period for managing an information security system and describe how it changes its state with preset distribution functions for the probabilities of providing and overcoming the protection without imposing any restrictions on the type of these distributions. Practical relevance: The analysis of changing probabilistic characteristics can help in organizing flexible security management to prevent an unauthorized access taking into account the predicted security level.Published
2015-02-20
How to Cite
Maltsev, G., Pankratov, A., & Lesniak, D. (2015). AProbabilistic Characteristics of Information System Security Changes under Unauthorized Access. Information and Control Systems, (1), 50-58. https://doi.org/10.15217/issn1684-8853.2015.1.50
Issue
Section
Information security