Combined Logical-Probabilistic and Linguistic Modeling of Complex System Failures
Abstract
Purpose: Logical-probabilistic modeling of failures happening to complex system units of various types, taking into account the links between the units and using the logical-linguistic approach. Results: A modeling procedure was described which combines logical-probabilistic and logical-linguistic methods of modeling temporal changes in the parameters of complex system units during their operation. A model was developed implementing a simplified approach to the problem of taking into account the links between the units using the logical-probabilistic and linguistic modeling method. An algorithm was proposed of modeling the temporal changes in the probability of failure of a complex system. This algorithm was implemented as a C# computer program. Practical relevance: The proposed approach can increase the accuracy of predicting the probability of failure either for a single unit or for other related units fraught with the danger of a general system failure. The obtained model can be used to control the survivability of a complex system, such as a hydroelectric power station. The results obtained in the simulation open up opportunities for further research, such as the adaptation of the algorithm for modeling large sets of objects, as well as creating an expert system for maintaining complex systems and preventing accidents and disasters. The reliability and accuracy of the simulation can be improved by correcting the coupling coefficients introduced in the simulation and the quantification intervals of the fuzzified data.Published
2015-02-20
How to Cite
Gorodetskiy, A., Tarasova, I., & Ziniakov, V. (2015). Combined Logical-Probabilistic and Linguistic Modeling of Complex System Failures. Information and Control Systems, (1), 35-42. https://doi.org/10.15217/issn1684-8853.2015.1.35
Issue
Section
System and process modeling